The latest monetary policy report from Bank Al-Maghrib has shed light on promising indicators for Morocco’s economy in the coming years. Despite ongoing global uncertainties, the report highlights Morocco’s growing stature as a regional economic powerhouse, driven by booming exports in the automotive and phosphate sectors, alongside continued improvements in tourism revenues and remittances from Moroccans living abroad.
Remarkable Growth in Moroccan Export
The report projects sustained growth in automotive exports, expected to reach MAD 200 billion by 2026, bolstered by the expansion of local manufacturing and rising global demand. Similarly, phosphate and derivatives exports are anticipated to achieve a significant milestone of MAD 100 billion in the same period, further solidifying Morocco’s position as a key player in this vital sector.
Tourism Revenues and Remittances: A Key Pillar
- Tourism revenues witnessed a 9.1% increase in 2024, with expectations to maintain this upward trajectory, reaching MAD 128 billion by 2026.
- Remittances from Moroccans abroad, a critical source of foreign exchange, are projected to grow annually at a rate of 3% to 3.5%, also reaching MAD 128 billion by 2026.
Economic Stability and Trade Balance
- The current account deficit is forecast to stabilize at 1% of GDP in 2024, reflecting improved economic resilience.
- Morocco’s energy bill is expected to decrease by 6.9% in 2024, thanks to declining global oil prices, offering further relief to the national economy.
Rising FDI and Strengthened Reserves
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is set to increase to 2.7% of GDP in 2024, compared to 2.4% in the previous year. Additionally, official foreign currency reserves are projected to reach MAD 400.2 billion by 2026, providing coverage for over five months of imports of goods and services.
Challenges and Risks
While the outlook remains optimistic, the report warns of significant challenges, particularly related to recurrent droughts and water scarcity, which pose risks to agricultural output. On the international front, geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, could disrupt global supply chains and economic stability.
Measured Optimism and Promising Prospects
The monetary policy report paints an encouraging picture of Morocco’s economic trajectory, driven by robust export performance and sustained inflows of foreign exchange. However, it also calls for vigilance against potential risks to ensure continued growth.
Conclusion
This report highlights the need for Morocco to strengthen its investment climate and prioritize sustainable development to maintain its economic momentum. By addressing key challenges, the country can further solidify its role as an emerging economic leader in the region.
Keywords: Moroccan economy, automotive exports, phosphate exports, remittances, Bank Al-Maghrib, monetary policy, tourism in Morocco.
