Russia has significantly boosted its exports of soft wheat to Morocco, achieving record-breaking volumes, according to the Russian National Agricultural Agency. The data, sourced from the Federal Center for the Development of Exports of Agricultural Products, highlights a notable shift in global wheat trade dynamics.
Since July 2024, Russia has exported approximately 900,000 tons of soft wheat to Morocco, far surpassing the total exports of previous seasons combined.
A Response to Moroccan Challenges
This surge in wheat imports aligns with Morocco’s recurring droughts, which have drastically impacted the country’s agricultural output. Moroccan wheat production this season has dropped to 2.5 million tons, a 40% decline compared to the previous season. Consequently, Morocco’s wheat import demand is projected to reach 7.5 million tons, compared to just 4.65 million tons in the previous cycle.
Speaking to Agroexport, Igor Pavinsky, head of agricultural market analysis at a prominent Russian company, stated:
“Frequent droughts in Morocco have increased the country’s dependency on wheat imports. Russia has capitalized on this opportunity by addressing past export challenges and significantly enhancing its presence in the Moroccan market.”
Changing Trade Dynamics
Historically, Morocco relied on France (1.5 to 2.8 million tons annually), Germany (1.1 to 1.2 million tons), and Canada (700,000 to 900,000 tons) for soft wheat. Russian exports to Morocco ranged between 300,000 and 600,000 tons per season. However, logistical and trade issues halted Russian exports entirely during the 2022/2023 season. In the current 2023/2024 season, Russia not only overcame these obstacles but also achieved remarkable success, exporting 900,000 tons in the first half alone.
France and the EU Lag Behind
Comparatively, French wheat exports to Morocco have dropped to 190,000 tons in the same period. The entire European Union, including major exporters like Romania and Bulgaria, has supplied only 770,000 tons—a volume still trailing behind Russia’s contribution.
Opportunities Beyond Soft Wheat
Pavinsky noted that Russia’s growing harvest capacity could allow it to expand its offerings to Morocco, including hard wheat and barley, commodities in which Moroccan production has also seen a decline.
Strengthening Bilateral Trade Relations
In November 2024, a landmark meeting between Moroccan importers and Russian grain exporters was held in Casablanca. This event, organized with the support of the Russian Embassy in Rabat, laid the groundwork for stronger trade ties. These advanced bilateral understandings are expected to further solidify Russia’s role as a key supplier of grains to Morocco.
Conclusion
This strategic shift in trade underscores Russia’s growing influence in the global wheat market, particularly in regions like North Africa where climatic challenges and food security concerns are driving increased demand. For Morocco, the partnership with Russia represents a vital step in ensuring stable grain supplies amid challenging agricultural conditions
